Analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the prices of the dairy sector of Tungurahua

Abstract

The analysis of the impact generated by the COVID-19 pandemic on the prices of the dairy sector in the province of Tungurahua is crucial due to its economic relevance, since the dairy industry represents an important source of income and employment in the country, however, producers and the industry have faced challenges related to price fluctuations of raw milk. This research study examines the evolution of raw milk producer prices in the province of Tungurahua, during the pre-pandemic, pandemic and post-pandemic periods, which shows an upward trend in prices, with greater variability during the pandemic. The study focuses on understanding the causes of price variations and their impact on producers and the local economy. The methodology used is based on a quantitative approach with correlational scope, in which descriptive statistical techniques, time series analysis and multiple regression models were applied to obtain a clear view of the factors that influence milk prices in the province. The study allowed the creation of two multiple regression models that explain a significant part of the variation in the price of raw milk producer in Tungurahua, the first model obtained a coefficient of determination of 0.8019 and the second model obtained 0.8537, these models highlight the significant influence of variables related to the production and consumption of milk.